|
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#1
|
|||
|
|||
TTT in the 1989 tour
On 22 Jul 2003 11:28:04 +0200, Benjamin Werner
wrote: Just by curiosity, I checked the TTT result of 89. Fignon's team (Super U) won it, and Lemond's team was 53'' back, to be compared with the 43'' USPS got over Ullrich's Bianchi. The similarities don't end the 1. Lemond wins the first ITT (stage 5/73km) - +56" over Fignon (2003 - Gaillac) 2. Fignon beats Lemond in Superbagneres +12" for Fignon 3. Lemond beats Fignon in ITT #2 + 47" over Fignon (2003 - Gaillac) 4. Lemond beats Fignon in Briancon - +13" over Fignon 5. Fignon beats Lemond at Alpe d'Huez - +1'19" for Fignon (2003 - Luz Ardiden) 6. Fignon beats Lemond at Villard - +24" 7. Paris ITT. It is another similarity between 89 and 03 that Lemond and Ullrich, as come-back kids are in a weaker team. Of course, this does not say anything magical about the final ITT. Cheers, Benjamin |
Ads |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
TTT in the 1989 tour
Benjamin Werner wrote:
Just by curiosity, I checked the TTT result of 89. Fignon's team (Super U) won it, and Lemond's team was 53'' back, to be compared with the 43'' USPS got over Ullrich's Bianchi. It is another similarity between 89 and 03 that Lemond and Ullrich, as come-back kids are in a weaker team. Of course, this does not say anything magical about the final ITT. Cheers, Benjamin Except that Ullrich can't pull out any fancy aero equipment to gain a decisive advantage. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
TTT in the 1989 tour
On Tue, 22 Jul 2003 12:30:07 GMT, David Ryan
wrote: Benjamin Werner wrote: Just by curiosity, I checked the TTT result of 89. Fignon's team (Super U) won it, and Lemond's team was 53'' back, to be compared with the 43'' USPS got over Ullrich's Bianchi. It is another similarity between 89 and 03 that Lemond and Ullrich, as come-back kids are in a weaker team. Of course, this does not say anything magical about the final ITT. Cheers, Benjamin Except that Ullrich can't pull out any fancy aero equipment to gain a decisive advantage. Not that made any difference three days ago. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
TTT in the 1989 tour
True, but Armstrong had a substandard performance during the last part of
the race, brought on partially (if not completely) by not properly preparing during the warm up (e.g., warm up in a cool room like Ullrich) and becoming severely dehydrated (though I doubt the reports of how much in the way of fluids he lost. Had he taken on more fluids the time gaps may (and most likely) would have been much smaller. If it is not particularly hot during the last ITT, then Ullrich cannot count on Armstrong suffering in the heat again. If both men enter the ITT in reasonably good form and both perform relatively well, I suspect that the ITT is a toss up; but even if you assumed that Ullrich's chances are 70:30 (which I think past history, which is all we have, would show this is very generous for Ullrich) and if you parse out the 67 seconds in 10 seconds increments and ask yourself what are the chances that Ullrich will win by 10 seconds or less, 20 seconds or less, etc. and you build a probabilty curve, you will find that there is probably less than a 20% chance he could actually win by 67seconds or more (assuming LA rides well - which we will not know until that day). Given that in this particular example we have assumed he would win 70% of the time, that means he probability of beating LA by 67 seconds is a paultry 14%. In other words, the probability is that 86% of the time LA will either win or will retain enough of a lead to win the TDF. Ullrich's chances drop considerable if you assume parity in the abilities (at parity Ullrich's probabilty of winning the TDF drop to 10%); however assuming that Ullrich would win every time out of the gate, only improves his chances by 20% in this example. For Ullrich to have a substantial probability (keep in mind this is simply attempting to provide a probability assessment as to the final outcome - remarkable things can and do happen, but the probability that they do is uncommon, that is why many of us become embroiled in the drama) of winning you have to assume that he would beat LA 100% of the time and that 50% of the time (assuming both men ride well) he could take 67 seconds out of Armstrong. History does not support those generous assumptions. If either man rides poorly than the other will likely win the Tour. I stand by my prediction: Armstrong has to have an average to poor day in the saddle to loose, if he is on, Ullrich may simply close the gap. Which may be more tragic then loosing the last ITT. Rick |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
TTT in the 1989 tour
wrote in message . .. True, but Armstrong had a substandard performance during the last part of the race, brought on partially (if not completely) by not properly preparing during the warm up (e.g., warm up in a cool room like Ullrich) and becoming severely dehydrated (though I doubt the reports of how much in the way of fluids he lost. Had he taken on more fluids the time gaps may (and most likely) would have been much smaller. If it is not particularly hot during the last ITT, then Ullrich cannot count on Armstrong suffering in the heat again. If both men enter the ITT in reasonably good form and both perform relatively well, I suspect that the ITT is a toss up; but even if you assumed that Ullrich's chances are 70:30 (which I think past history, which is all we have, would show this is very generous for Ullrich) and if you parse out the 67 seconds in 10 seconds increments and ask yourself what are the chances that Ullrich will win by 10 seconds or less, 20 seconds or less, etc. and you build a probabilty curve, you will find that there is probably less than a 20% chance he could actually win by 67seconds or more (assuming LA rides well - which we will not know until that day). Exactly right. We will see that Ullrich lost on the slopes of Luz Ardiden. LA will ride wil more confidence having the 67 seconds in hand. The stress of having Ullrich only 15 seconds behind may have contributed to a bad TT. lacne needed that win for so many reasons. I was expecting that kind of performance on the 8th stage. It is not normal for Lance to wait that long. It sure made for a graet Tour though. Given that in this particular example we have assumed he would win 70% of the time, that means he probability of beating LA by 67 seconds is a paultry 14%. In other words, the probability is that 86% of the time LA will either win or will retain enough of a lead to win the TDF. Ullrich's chances drop considerable if you assume parity in the abilities (at parity Ullrich's probabilty of winning the TDF drop to 10%); however assuming that Ullrich would win every time out of the gate, only improves his chances by 20% in this example. For Ullrich to have a substantial probability (keep in mind this is simply attempting to provide a probability assessment as to the final outcome - remarkable things can and do happen, but the probability that they do is uncommon, that is why many of us become embroiled in the drama) of winning you have to assume that he would beat LA 100% of the time and that 50% of the time (assuming both men ride well) he could take 67 seconds out of Armstrong. History does not support those generous assumptions. If either man rides poorly than the other will likely win the Tour. I stand by my prediction: Armstrong has to have an average to poor day in the saddle to loose, if he is on, Ullrich may simply close the gap. Which may be more tragic then loosing the last ITT. Rick |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
TTT in the 1989 tour
Does Ullrich need 67 seconds or 68?
The tie-break rules are complex, remember. Let's say he takes back 67 seconds. Who wins the Tour? |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Why do my hard earned tax dollars support a bike team? | Churchill | General | 76 | July 21st 04 05:03 PM |
Stay away from "Napa Valley Bike Tours" | Happy Russ | General | 10 | December 30th 03 08:58 PM |
Tours to "The Tour" | Mike Jacoubowsky | General | 3 | August 12th 03 05:28 AM |
Tour de France stage 4 Update on Hugh Hewitt Show | David Ryan | Racing | 1 | July 11th 03 03:07 AM |