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#11
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Telluride testing update
Frank Krygowski writes:
On 4/4/2020 8:53 PM, Radey Shouman wrote: Ralph Barone writes: Tom Kunich wrote: On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 10:11:30 AM UTC-7, Ralph Barone wrote: Tom Kunich wrote: On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 6:38:04 AM UTC-7, Ralph Barone wrote: The company testing the entire population of Telluride, CO for COVID-19 antibodies has reported some more definite preliminary results. Of nearly 1,000 people tested, 8 were found to have antibodies, and 23 had intermediate or borderline results. This does not seem to agree with Tom’s theory that most people have already had the disease. https://www.cpr.org/2020/04/02/tellu...e-uncertainty/ Firstly Telluride is the last place you would expect the virus - away from real population centers, in very clean air without pollution causing previous lung damage and with a younger population that are active and hence having a low incidence of coronary heart disease. How would the virus be introduced in the first place? It isn't like Silicon Valley with 10% of the workers native Chinese. Plus there is this: "So far, they have tested about 12 percent of the county’s 8,200 residents. The state has reported results for about three-tenths of one percent of Colorado’s total number of residents." Certainly. New York or Seattle would be much better places to test today, but that’s not what’s happening, so you have to take the data you have and run with it. However, I thought that your hypothesis was that this disease was at least as infectious as others claim, but that the vast majority get it and don’t even know it, and therefore we’re already at the peak of the pandemic as opposed to going up the steep edge. This data does not support that hypothesis. Also Telluride has a relatively highly rated ski resort, and since some of the initial spread of the virus may have occurred at ski resorts, the town could have had substantial exposure even though it’s away from population centres. I remain of the opinion that there’s still a lot more **** which hasn’t hit the fan yet. You are certainly entitled to your opinion. But with Fauci already having predicted that we would get from 100,000-240,000 deaths and we're all the way up to 8,000 either we are going to have people that have never even been to a town getting it or we will have to invent more population centers. We have a population of 50 million senior citizens and only 3 - 4% of those are in sad enough condition to died from this disease. (That's = 1,500,000) We have to pretend that either it is a 3% mortality rate of "confirmed cases" or that the mortality rate is a great deal less. More on the order of 1/2% 250,000 to have numbers like Fauci is tossing about. But EVEN considering that, those low numbers of fatalities STILL don't add up. In this period of time supposedly China passed WELL over the peak and started down. Outbreaks in other areas of China did not spread in the same manner. Wuhan is also the most polluted air in all of China. Northeastern Italy is the most polluted area in all of Europe and NYC is the most polluted area on the East Coast. Is there a connection? The bay area despite having a population about 90% of NYC is having neither the rapid growth nor the fatalities as NYC. It isn't as if the air here isn't clean, but neither can you call most of it badly polluted. On the West Coast with a larger population than the East Coast cities combined, and with the spot where all of the Chinese who visited Wuhan land, we are having 10% of the fatalities and the GROWTH of the disease is not fast. Fauci's predictions haven't even gotten close to what he thought. Well, he is an infectious disease expert and he has to try to predict the worst case scenarios so I cannot fault him for that. What I CAN fault is the Chicken Little Syndrome of the DNC and their propaganda arm, the Lame Stream Media. This is not driven by their own fear but their attempt to use a rather unimportant new virus as a political hammer. History will tell and if we’re all still alive when this ****show is over, one of us will be able to tell the other “I told you so”, and one of us might reply with “I guess you were right” You certainly are an optimist. I'll be amazed to find anyone admitting a mistake. In the past, a few of us have admitted mistakes here; but certainly not many. Once I thought I was wrong, but *that* was a mistake. |
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#12
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Telluride testing update
On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 6:10:02 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 4/4/2020 8:53 PM, Radey Shouman wrote: Ralph Barone writes: Tom Kunich wrote: On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 10:11:30 AM UTC-7, Ralph Barone wrote: Tom Kunich wrote: On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 6:38:04 AM UTC-7, Ralph Barone wrote: The company testing the entire population of Telluride, CO for COVID-19 antibodies has reported some more definite preliminary results. Of nearly 1,000 people tested, 8 were found to have antibodies, and 23 had intermediate or borderline results. This does not seem to agree with Tom’s theory that most people have already had the disease. https://www.cpr.org/2020/04/02/tellu...e-uncertainty/ Firstly Telluride is the last place you would expect the virus - away from real population centers, in very clean air without pollution causing previous lung damage and with a younger population that are active and hence having a low incidence of coronary heart disease. How would the virus be introduced in the first place? It isn't like Silicon Valley with 10% of the workers native Chinese. Plus there is this: "So far, they have tested about 12 percent of the county’s 8,200 residents. The state has reported results for about three-tenths of one percent of Colorado’s total number of residents." Certainly. New York or Seattle would be much better places to test today, but that’s not what’s happening, so you have to take the data you have and run with it. However, I thought that your hypothesis was that this disease was at least as infectious as others claim, but that the vast majority get it and don’t even know it, and therefore we’re already at the peak of the pandemic as opposed to going up the steep edge. This data does not support that hypothesis. Also Telluride has a relatively highly rated ski resort, and since some of the initial spread of the virus may have occurred at ski resorts, the town could have had substantial exposure even though it’s away from population centres. I remain of the opinion that there’s still a lot more **** which hasn’t hit the fan yet. You are certainly entitled to your opinion. But with Fauci already having predicted that we would get from 100,000-240,000 deaths and we're all the way up to 8,000 either we are going to have people that have never even been to a town getting it or we will have to invent more population centers. We have a population of 50 million senior citizens and only 3 - 4% of those are in sad enough condition to died from this disease. (That's = 1,500,000) We have to pretend that either it is a 3% mortality rate of "confirmed cases" or that the mortality rate is a great deal less. More on the order of 1/2% 250,000 to have numbers like Fauci is tossing about. But EVEN considering that, those low numbers of fatalities STILL don't add up. In this period of time supposedly China passed WELL over the peak and started down. Outbreaks in other areas of China did not spread in the same manner. Wuhan is also the most polluted air in all of China. Northeastern Italy is the most polluted area in all of Europe and NYC is the most polluted area on the East Coast. Is there a connection? The bay area despite having a population about 90% of NYC is having neither the rapid growth nor the fatalities as NYC. It isn't as if the air here isn't clean, but neither can you call most of it badly polluted. On the West Coast with a larger population than the East Coast cities combined, and with the spot where all of the Chinese who visited Wuhan land, we are having 10% of the fatalities and the GROWTH of the disease is not fast. |
#13
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Telluride testing update
On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 5:03:19 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 4/4/2020 6:46 PM, Tom Kunich wrote: On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 1:48:28 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote: So Tom, please give us your explicit predictions. Tell us where you think we'll be by, say, June 1. Give us your estimate of the number of proven cases, the number of deaths, the number who were (or are) in critical condition, the number totally recovered, the number recovered but with some long term disability, etc. Give us some numbers that we can check for accuracy later, since you claim such excellent understanding of the virus. You told us you were a math teacher. No, I did not! Tom, stop relying on your memory! But you don't seem to know the difference between statistics and prediction. Oh come on. Your orange hero has made many predictions about this virus, and most have proven very wrong. But he's far wiser than medical professionals, right? And you're even wiser, aren't you? You certainly spend plenty of time disparaging those experts. Prove your wisdom. If they are wrong, tell us what's correct. What will the COVID counts be on June 1? Or admit it: You really don't know much. And you're afraid to be proven wrong - yet again. -- - Frank Krygowski What "predictions" has he made that weren't required of the office of President to try to calm the people of this country that human trash like you have attempted to frighten for your own ends? As I said, it is easy to see why you were a failed engineer. Is that why your entire being is filled with hatred for the world around you? Why the people that you even want to ride with roll their eyes behind your back? |
#14
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Telluride testing update
On 4/5/2020 12:25 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 5:03:19 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 4/4/2020 6:46 PM, Tom Kunich wrote: On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 1:48:28 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote: So Tom, please give us your explicit predictions. Tell us where you think we'll be by, say, June 1. Give us your estimate of the number of proven cases, the number of deaths, the number who were (or are) in critical condition, the number totally recovered, the number recovered but with some long term disability, etc. Give us some numbers that we can check for accuracy later, since you claim such excellent understanding of the virus. You told us you were a math teacher. No, I did not! Tom, stop relying on your memory! But you don't seem to know the difference between statistics and prediction. Oh come on. Your orange hero has made many predictions about this virus, and most have proven very wrong. But he's far wiser than medical professionals, right? And you're even wiser, aren't you? You certainly spend plenty of time disparaging those experts. Prove your wisdom. If they are wrong, tell us what's correct. What will the COVID counts be on June 1? Or admit it: You really don't know much. And you're afraid to be proven wrong - yet again. -- - Frank Krygowski What "predictions" has he made that weren't required of the office of President to try to calm the people of this country that human trash like you have attempted to frighten for your own ends? You're deflecting again, Tom. If you know as much as you claim - that is, more than the CDC, the various Directors of Public Health, etc. - you should give us a prediction so we can check you out. Otherwise, quit pretending. As I said, it is easy to see why you were a failed engineer. Is that why your entire being is filled with hatred for the world around you? Why the people that you even want to ride with roll their eyes behind your back? :-) My, you sound bitter! -- - Frank Krygowski |
#15
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Telluride testing update
On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 5:48:26 PM UTC-7, Ralph Barone wrote:
Tom Kunich wrote: You are certainly entitled to your opinion. But with Fauci already having predicted that we would get from 100,000-240,000 deaths and we're all the way up to 8,000 either we are going to have people that have never even been to a town getting it or we will have to invent more population centers. We have a population of 50 million senior citizens and only 3 - 4% of those are in sad enough condition to died from this disease. (That's = 1,500,000) We have to pretend that either it is a 3% mortality rate of "confirmed cases" or that the mortality rate is a great deal less. More on the order of 1/2% 250,000 to have numbers like Fauci is tossing about. |
#16
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Telluride testing update
On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 09:45:47 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich
wrote: On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 5:48:26 PM UTC-7, Ralph Barone wrote: Tom Kunich wrote: You are certainly entitled to your opinion. But with Fauci already having predicted that we would get from 100,000-240,000 deaths and we're all the way up to 8,000 either we are going to have people that have never even been to a town getting it or we will have to invent more population centers. We have a population of 50 million senior citizens and only 3 - 4% of those are in sad enough condition to died from this disease. (That's = 1,500,000) We have to pretend that either it is a 3% mortality rate of "confirmed cases" or that the mortality rate is a great deal less. More on the order of 1/2% 250,000 to have numbers like Fauci is tossing about. But EVEN considering that, those low numbers of fatalities STILL don't add up. In this period of time supposedly China passed WELL over the peak and started down. Outbreaks in other areas of China did not spread in the same manner. Wuhan is also the most polluted air in all of China. Northeastern Italy is the most polluted area in all of Europe and NYC is the most polluted area on the East Coast. Is there a connection? The bay area despite having a population about 90% of NYC is having neither the rapid growth nor the fatalities as NYC. It isn't as if the air here isn't clean, but neither can you call most of it badly polluted. On the West Coast with a larger population than the East Coast cities combined, and with the spot where all of the Chinese who visited Wuhan land, we are having 10% of the fatalities and the GROWTH of the disease is not fast. Fauci's predictions haven't even gotten close to what he thought. Well, he is an infectious disease expert and he has to try to predict the worst case scenarios so I cannot fault him for that. What I CAN fault is the Chicken Little Syndrome of the DNC and their propaganda arm, the Lame Stream Media. This is not driven by their own fear but their attempt to use a rather unimportant new virus as a political hammer. History will tell and if were all still alive when this ****show is over, one of us will be able to tell the other I told you so, and one of us might reply with I guess you were right Even now we are at less than 10% of Fauci's lowest estimate. Social distancing has some effect but not a lot. Do you believe that the food you eat hasn't been handled by at the very minimum a dozen people? M95 mask effective? These masks are designed really to stop bacterial infections but they can filter particles down to 0.3 mm. Too bad a corona virus is 0.16. Their external proteins will not attach to the mask material. While we certainly have a lot of heavy population centers that could have high infection rates we also have three different off-label but allowed means of treating it and another under rapid testing that started as a treatment for SARS. We have three different companies who have developed a vaccine which is under testing for the FDA approvals. Since the population at real risk is small, comparatively, the real problem is last week's infections which didn't have treatments available. So perhaps we will have a spike over the coming week as the President said, but I am growing doubtful that it will be very large now. I am perhaps two days from full remission and my symptoms were so mild that I cannot even tell I have any most of the time. Goodness, now you are claiming that you had the virus? And how do you know? You were tested? Or you had a case of the "sniffles" and wanting to look like a hero decided to lie about it and brag that you had the "Virus"? Tom, you are pitiful! -- cheers, John B. |
#17
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Telluride testing update
On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 12:43:41 -0400, Frank Krygowski
wrote: On 4/5/2020 12:25 PM, Tom Kunich wrote: On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 5:03:19 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 4/4/2020 6:46 PM, Tom Kunich wrote: On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 1:48:28 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote: So Tom, please give us your explicit predictions. Tell us where you think we'll be by, say, June 1. Give us your estimate of the number of proven cases, the number of deaths, the number who were (or are) in critical condition, the number totally recovered, the number recovered but with some long term disability, etc. Give us some numbers that we can check for accuracy later, since you claim such excellent understanding of the virus. You told us you were a math teacher. No, I did not! Tom, stop relying on your memory! But you don't seem to know the difference between statistics and prediction. Oh come on. Your orange hero has made many predictions about this virus, and most have proven very wrong. But he's far wiser than medical professionals, right? And you're even wiser, aren't you? You certainly spend plenty of time disparaging those experts. Prove your wisdom. If they are wrong, tell us what's correct. What will the COVID counts be on June 1? Or admit it: You really don't know much. And you're afraid to be proven wrong - yet again. -- - Frank Krygowski What "predictions" has he made that weren't required of the office of President to try to calm the people of this country that human trash like you have attempted to frighten for your own ends? You're deflecting again, Tom. If you know as much as you claim - that is, more than the CDC, the various Directors of Public Health, etc. - you should give us a prediction so we can check you out. Otherwise, quit pretending. But Frank, his whole life is based on pretending. -- cheers, John B. |
#18
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Telluride testing update
On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 09:25:02 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich
wrote: On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 5:03:19 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote: On 4/4/2020 6:46 PM, Tom Kunich wrote: On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 1:48:28 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote: So Tom, please give us your explicit predictions. Tell us where you think we'll be by, say, June 1. Give us your estimate of the number of proven cases, the number of deaths, the number who were (or are) in critical condition, the number totally recovered, the number recovered but with some long term disability, etc. Give us some numbers that we can check for accuracy later, since you claim such excellent understanding of the virus. You told us you were a math teacher. No, I did not! Tom, stop relying on your memory! But you don't seem to know the difference between statistics and prediction. Oh come on. Your orange hero has made many predictions about this virus, and most have proven very wrong. But he's far wiser than medical professionals, right? And you're even wiser, aren't you? You certainly spend plenty of time disparaging those experts. Prove your wisdom. If they are wrong, tell us what's correct. What will the COVID counts be on June 1? Or admit it: You really don't know much. And you're afraid to be proven wrong - yet again. -- - Frank Krygowski What "predictions" has he made that weren't required of the office of President to try to calm the people of this country that human trash like you have attempted to frighten for your own ends? As I said, it is easy to see why you were a failed engineer. Is that why your entire being is filled with hatred for the world around you? Why the people that you even want to ride with roll their eyes behind your back? Which raises the question if Frank's entire being is based on hatred, as you allege and your entire being is based on lies, as you prove in your posts, which is to be preferred? Or to go into even more details, As you are a teller of lies and you say that "Frank is filled with hatred" are you lying? -- cheers, John B. |
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