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HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING? DEPENDS ON WHICH NUMBERS YOU EMPHASISE.



 
 
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  #1  
Old May 12th 19, 11:59 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Andre Jute[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,422
Default HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING? DEPENDS ON WHICH NUMBERS YOU EMPHASISE.

Here's my analysis of US national bicycle safety, published in 2010.* Nothing significant has changed since then.

***
HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING?
Surprisingly, cycling can be argued to be "safe enough", given only
that one is willing to count the intangible benefits of health through
exercise, generally acknowledged as substantial. Here I shall make no
effort to quantify those health benefits because the argument I'm
putting forward is conclusively made by harder statistics and
unexceptional general morality.

In the representative year of 2008, the last for which comprehesive
data is available, 716 cyclists died on US roads, and 52,000 were
injured.

Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

The most convenient way to grasp the meaning of these statistics is to
compare cycling with motoring, the latter ipso facto by motorists'
average mileage accepted by most Americans as safe enough.

Compared to a motorist a cyclist is:
11 times MORE likely to die PER MILE travelled
2.9 times MORE likely to die PER TRIP taken

By adding information about the relative frequency/length/duration of
journeys of cyclists and motorists, we can further conclude that in
the US:

Compared to a motorist, a cyclist is:
3 to 4 times MORE likely to die PER HOUR riding
3 to 4 times LESS likely to die IN A YEAR's riding

Source:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=D&q=htt...Wt7vubH xju7Q

It is the last number, that the average cyclist is 3 to 4 times less
likely to die in a year's riding than a motorist, and enjoys all the
benefits of healthy exercise, that permits us to ignore the greater
per mile/per trip/per hour danger.

***

Andre Jute
* A complete version is at
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!ms...ch/qOFCNhQ1428 . I used the best national figures available then, referring to 2008, but just about nothing has changed since then.
  #2  
Old May 13th 19, 05:31 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Tom Kunich[_5_]
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Posts: 1,231
Default HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING? DEPENDS ON WHICH NUMBERS YOU EMPHASISE.

On Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 3:59:57 AM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
Here's my analysis of US national bicycle safety, published in 2010.* Nothing significant has changed since then.

***
HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING?
Surprisingly, cycling can be argued to be "safe enough", given only
that one is willing to count the intangible benefits of health through
exercise, generally acknowledged as substantial. Here I shall make no
effort to quantify those health benefits because the argument I'm
putting forward is conclusively made by harder statistics and
unexceptional general morality.

In the representative year of 2008, the last for which comprehesive
data is available, 716 cyclists died on US roads, and 52,000 were
injured.

Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

The most convenient way to grasp the meaning of these statistics is to
compare cycling with motoring, the latter ipso facto by motorists'
average mileage accepted by most Americans as safe enough.

Compared to a motorist a cyclist is:
11 times MORE likely to die PER MILE travelled
2.9 times MORE likely to die PER TRIP taken

By adding information about the relative frequency/length/duration of
journeys of cyclists and motorists, we can further conclude that in
the US:

Compared to a motorist, a cyclist is:
3 to 4 times MORE likely to die PER HOUR riding
3 to 4 times LESS likely to die IN A YEAR's riding

Source:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=D&q=htt...Wt7vubH xju7Q

It is the last number, that the average cyclist is 3 to 4 times less
likely to die in a year's riding than a motorist, and enjoys all the
benefits of healthy exercise, that permits us to ignore the greater
per mile/per trip/per hour danger.

***

Andre Jute
* A complete version is at
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!ms...ch/qOFCNhQ1428 . I used the best national figures available then, referring to 2008, but just about nothing has changed since then.


My experience shows nothing of the kind. Though I DO have motorists acting in a threatening manner quite often after some 40 years of cycling I have been hit by ONE car. And that at a very low rate of speed so that I was more sore from contact from the ground than damage by the car.

I watched Andrew's video on "taking the lane" and you can SEE that in these cases these drivers were breaking the law in every case and in all but one I don't think that any actions taken by the rider would have prevented it other than by being more observant and FAR more willing to modify their speed to allow these obviously stupid drivers to go regardless of right-of-way..

I think that the "dangerous" bicycle statistics come entirely from people that do not know how to ride correctly, ride on the wrong side of the road against traffic, ride on sidewalks veering out into traffic in an unpredictable manner and the like. This is somewhat similar to cars being made to look far less safe than they are because of the dangerous driving habits of a very few.
  #3  
Old May 13th 19, 10:33 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Andre Jute[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,422
Default HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING? DEPENDS ON WHICH NUMBERS YOU EMPHASISE.

On Monday, May 13, 2019 at 5:31:26 PM UTC+1, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 3:59:57 AM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
Here's my analysis of US national bicycle safety, published in 2010.* Nothing significant has changed since then.

***
HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING?
Surprisingly, cycling can be argued to be "safe enough", given only
that one is willing to count the intangible benefits of health through
exercise, generally acknowledged as substantial. Here I shall make no
effort to quantify those health benefits because the argument I'm
putting forward is conclusively made by harder statistics and
unexceptional general morality.

In the representative year of 2008, the last for which comprehesive
data is available, 716 cyclists died on US roads, and 52,000 were
injured.

Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

The most convenient way to grasp the meaning of these statistics is to
compare cycling with motoring, the latter ipso facto by motorists'
average mileage accepted by most Americans as safe enough.

Compared to a motorist a cyclist is:
11 times MORE likely to die PER MILE travelled
2.9 times MORE likely to die PER TRIP taken

By adding information about the relative frequency/length/duration of
journeys of cyclists and motorists, we can further conclude that in
the US:

Compared to a motorist, a cyclist is:
3 to 4 times MORE likely to die PER HOUR riding
3 to 4 times LESS likely to die IN A YEAR's riding

Source:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=D&q=htt...Wt7vubH xju7Q

It is the last number, that the average cyclist is 3 to 4 times less
likely to die in a year's riding than a motorist, and enjoys all the
benefits of healthy exercise, that permits us to ignore the greater
per mile/per trip/per hour danger.

***

Andre Jute
* A complete version is at
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!ms...ch/qOFCNhQ1428 . I used the best national figures available then, referring to 2008, but just about nothing has changed since then.


My experience shows nothing of the kind.


You can't argue with the official national numbers, Tom.

Though I DO have motorists acting in a threatening manner quite often after some 40 years of cycling I have been hit by ONE car. And that at a very low rate of speed so that I was more sore from contact from the ground than damage by the car.


In the random nature of statistical calculation, if there is one chance in a million of your being hit, and you're hit today, that does mean you can't be hit tomorrow as well

I watched Andrew's video on "taking the lane" and you can SEE that in these cases these drivers were breaking the law in every case and in all but one I don't think that any actions taken by the rider would have prevented it other than by being more observant and FAR more willing to modify their speed to allow these obviously stupid drivers to go regardless of right-of-way.


These numbers that I'm offering don't differentiate the causes of the incidents leading to the fatalities.

I think that the "dangerous" bicycle statistics come entirely from people that do not know how to ride correctly, ride on the wrong side of the road against traffic, ride on sidewalks veering out into traffic in an unpredictable manner and the like. This is somewhat similar to cars being made to look far less safe than they are because of the dangerous driving habits of a very few.


Sure, but again, these are the national official figures I'm working with, and they're a compilation of actual deaths on the road, not a sample, not anyone's opinion of the danger, but the hard facts of dead cyclists, 700 and some dead cyclists.

I made the original post because Frank Krygowski understated how safe cycling is, even as he screeched that other people were shouting "Danger! Danger!", as he still does in the forlorn hope of shutting up conversation.

Andre Jute
Numerate
  #4  
Old May 13th 19, 11:27 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Sir Ridesalot
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Posts: 5,270
Default HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING? DEPENDS ON WHICH NUMBERS YOU EMPHASISE.

On Monday, May 13, 2019 at 5:33:52 PM UTC-4, Andre Jute wrote:
On Monday, May 13, 2019 at 5:31:26 PM UTC+1, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 3:59:57 AM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
Here's my analysis of US national bicycle safety, published in 2010.* Nothing significant has changed since then.

***
HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING?
Surprisingly, cycling can be argued to be "safe enough", given only
that one is willing to count the intangible benefits of health through
exercise, generally acknowledged as substantial. Here I shall make no
effort to quantify those health benefits because the argument I'm
putting forward is conclusively made by harder statistics and
unexceptional general morality.

In the representative year of 2008, the last for which comprehesive
data is available, 716 cyclists died on US roads, and 52,000 were
injured.

Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

The most convenient way to grasp the meaning of these statistics is to
compare cycling with motoring, the latter ipso facto by motorists'
average mileage accepted by most Americans as safe enough.

Compared to a motorist a cyclist is:
11 times MORE likely to die PER MILE travelled
2.9 times MORE likely to die PER TRIP taken

By adding information about the relative frequency/length/duration of
journeys of cyclists and motorists, we can further conclude that in
the US:

Compared to a motorist, a cyclist is:
3 to 4 times MORE likely to die PER HOUR riding
3 to 4 times LESS likely to die IN A YEAR's riding

Source:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=D&q=htt...Wt7vubH xju7Q

It is the last number, that the average cyclist is 3 to 4 times less
likely to die in a year's riding than a motorist, and enjoys all the
benefits of healthy exercise, that permits us to ignore the greater
per mile/per trip/per hour danger.

***

Andre Jute
* A complete version is at
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!ms...ch/qOFCNhQ1428 . I used the best national figures available then, referring to 2008, but just about nothing has changed since then.


My experience shows nothing of the kind.


You can't argue with the official national numbers, Tom.

Though I DO have motorists acting in a threatening manner quite often after some 40 years of cycling I have been hit by ONE car. And that at a very low rate of speed so that I was more sore from contact from the ground than damage by the car.


In the random nature of statistical calculation, if there is one chance in a million of your being hit, and you're hit today, that does mean you can't be hit tomorrow as well

I watched Andrew's video on "taking the lane" and you can SEE that in these cases these drivers were breaking the law in every case and in all but one I don't think that any actions taken by the rider would have prevented it other than by being more observant and FAR more willing to modify their speed to allow these obviously stupid drivers to go regardless of right-of-way.


These numbers that I'm offering don't differentiate the causes of the incidents leading to the fatalities.

I think that the "dangerous" bicycle statistics come entirely from people that do not know how to ride correctly, ride on the wrong side of the road against traffic, ride on sidewalks veering out into traffic in an unpredictable manner and the like. This is somewhat similar to cars being made to look far less safe than they are because of the dangerous driving habits of a very few.


Sure, but again, these are the national official figures I'm working with, and they're a compilation of actual deaths on the road, not a sample, not anyone's opinion of the danger, but the hard facts of dead cyclists, 700 and some dead cyclists.

I made the original post because Frank Krygowski understated how safe cycling is, even as he screeched that other people were shouting "Danger! Danger!", as he still does in the forlorn hope of shutting up conversation.

  #5  
Old May 14th 19, 12:06 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
John B. Slocomb
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 547
Default HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING? DEPENDS ON WHICH NUMBERS YOU EMPHASISE.

On Mon, 13 May 2019 15:27:49 -0700 (PDT), Sir Ridesalot
wrote:

On Monday, May 13, 2019 at 5:33:52 PM UTC-4, Andre Jute wrote:
On Monday, May 13, 2019 at 5:31:26 PM UTC+1, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 3:59:57 AM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
Here's my analysis of US national bicycle safety, published in 2010.* Nothing significant has changed since then.

***
HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING?
Surprisingly, cycling can be argued to be "safe enough", given only
that one is willing to count the intangible benefits of health through
exercise, generally acknowledged as substantial. Here I shall make no
effort to quantify those health benefits because the argument I'm
putting forward is conclusively made by harder statistics and
unexceptional general morality.

In the representative year of 2008, the last for which comprehesive
data is available, 716 cyclists died on US roads, and 52,000 were
injured.

Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

The most convenient way to grasp the meaning of these statistics is to
compare cycling with motoring, the latter ipso facto by motorists'
average mileage accepted by most Americans as safe enough.

Compared to a motorist a cyclist is:
11 times MORE likely to die PER MILE travelled
2.9 times MORE likely to die PER TRIP taken

By adding information about the relative frequency/length/duration of
journeys of cyclists and motorists, we can further conclude that in
the US:

Compared to a motorist, a cyclist is:
3 to 4 times MORE likely to die PER HOUR riding
3 to 4 times LESS likely to die IN A YEAR's riding

Source:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=D&q=htt...Wt7vubH xju7Q

It is the last number, that the average cyclist is 3 to 4 times less
likely to die in a year's riding than a motorist, and enjoys all the
benefits of healthy exercise, that permits us to ignore the greater
per mile/per trip/per hour danger.

***

Andre Jute
* A complete version is at
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!ms...ch/qOFCNhQ1428 . I used the best national figures available then, referring to 2008, but just about nothing has changed since then.

My experience shows nothing of the kind.


You can't argue with the official national numbers, Tom.

Though I DO have motorists acting in a threatening manner quite often after some 40 years of cycling I have been hit by ONE car. And that at a very low rate of speed so that I was more sore from contact from the ground than damage by the car.


In the random nature of statistical calculation, if there is one chance in a million of your being hit, and you're hit today, that does mean you can't be hit tomorrow as well

I watched Andrew's video on "taking the lane" and you can SEE that in these cases these drivers were breaking the law in every case and in all but one I don't think that any actions taken by the rider would have prevented it other than by being more observant and FAR more willing to modify their speed to allow these obviously stupid drivers to go regardless of right-of-way.


These numbers that I'm offering don't differentiate the causes of the incidents leading to the fatalities.

I think that the "dangerous" bicycle statistics come entirely from people that do not know how to ride correctly, ride on the wrong side of the road against traffic, ride on sidewalks veering out into traffic in an unpredictable manner and the like. This is somewhat similar to cars being made to look far less safe than they are because of the dangerous driving habits of a very few.


Sure, but again, these are the national official figures I'm working with, and they're a compilation of actual deaths on the road, not a sample, not anyone's opinion of the danger, but the hard facts of dead cyclists, 700 and some dead cyclists.

I made the original post because Frank Krygowski understated how safe cycling is, even as he screeched that other people were shouting "Danger! Danger!", as he still does in the forlorn hope of shutting up conversation.

Andre Jute
Numerate


With regards to statistics. I think British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli said it best: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The problem with statistics seems to be that one can pick and choose which ones to use to support their position.

Cheers


The origins of the seems to have been Mark Twain who attributed it to
Disraeli. As a prelude he wrote, " "Figures often beguile me,
particularly when I have the arranging of them myself" which matches
your theory that statistics often support the individual that most
carefully selects them. :-)

I've mentioned a good friend who ran a successful financial research
firm here in Bangkok, who often stated that he could design a survey
to prove anything that you wished.
--

Cheers,

John B.
  #6  
Old May 14th 19, 10:18 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Andre Jute[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,422
Default HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING? DEPENDS ON WHICH NUMBERS YOU EMPHASISE.

On Monday, May 13, 2019 at 11:27:51 PM UTC+1, Sir Ridesalot wrote:
On Monday, May 13, 2019 at 5:33:52 PM UTC-4, Andre Jute wrote:
On Monday, May 13, 2019 at 5:31:26 PM UTC+1, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 3:59:57 AM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
Here's my analysis of US national bicycle safety, published in 2010..* Nothing significant has changed since then.

***
HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING?
Surprisingly, cycling can be argued to be "safe enough", given only
that one is willing to count the intangible benefits of health through
exercise, generally acknowledged as substantial. Here I shall make no
effort to quantify those health benefits because the argument I'm
putting forward is conclusively made by harder statistics and
unexceptional general morality.

In the representative year of 2008, the last for which comprehesive
data is available, 716 cyclists died on US roads, and 52,000 were
injured.

Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

The most convenient way to grasp the meaning of these statistics is to
compare cycling with motoring, the latter ipso facto by motorists'
average mileage accepted by most Americans as safe enough.

Compared to a motorist a cyclist is:
11 times MORE likely to die PER MILE travelled
2.9 times MORE likely to die PER TRIP taken

By adding information about the relative frequency/length/duration of
journeys of cyclists and motorists, we can further conclude that in
the US:

Compared to a motorist, a cyclist is:
3 to 4 times MORE likely to die PER HOUR riding
3 to 4 times LESS likely to die IN A YEAR's riding

Source:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=D&q=htt...Wt7vubH xju7Q

It is the last number, that the average cyclist is 3 to 4 times less
likely to die in a year's riding than a motorist, and enjoys all the
benefits of healthy exercise, that permits us to ignore the greater
per mile/per trip/per hour danger.

***

Andre Jute
* A complete version is at
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!ms...ch/qOFCNhQ1428 . I used the best national figures available then, referring to 2008, but just about nothing has changed since then.

My experience shows nothing of the kind.


You can't argue with the official national numbers, Tom.

Though I DO have motorists acting in a threatening manner quite often after some 40 years of cycling I have been hit by ONE car. And that at a very low rate of speed so that I was more sore from contact from the ground than damage by the car.


In the random nature of statistical calculation, if there is one chance in a million of your being hit, and you're hit today, that does mean you can't be hit tomorrow as well

I watched Andrew's video on "taking the lane" and you can SEE that in these cases these drivers were breaking the law in every case and in all but one I don't think that any actions taken by the rider would have prevented it other than by being more observant and FAR more willing to modify their speed to allow these obviously stupid drivers to go regardless of right-of-way.


These numbers that I'm offering don't differentiate the causes of the incidents leading to the fatalities.

I think that the "dangerous" bicycle statistics come entirely from people that do not know how to ride correctly, ride on the wrong side of the road against traffic, ride on sidewalks veering out into traffic in an unpredictable manner and the like. This is somewhat similar to cars being made to look far less safe than they are because of the dangerous driving habits of a very few.


Sure, but again, these are the national official figures I'm working with, and they're a compilation of actual deaths on the road, not a sample, not anyone's opinion of the danger, but the hard facts of dead cyclists, 700 and some dead cyclists.

I made the original post because Frank Krygowski understated how safe cycling is, even as he screeched that other people were shouting "Danger! Danger!", as he still does in the forlorn hope of shutting up conversation.

Andre Jute
Numerate


With regards to statistics. I think British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli said it best: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The problem with statistics seems to be that one can pick and choose which ones to use to support their position.

Cheers


Nope. Those figures are official, and my results are achieved by simple division according to principles long agreed by the vast majority of bicyclists (that your health is worth some extra risk). The amazing thing isn't my numbers, but that a clown like Krygowski was so incompetent with statistics as to ***overstate*** the danger of cycling for so long until I came and did the job right.

Everyone, including Krygowski (without thanks, of course), now uses my numbers, in the vast number of cases without attribution, often without knowing who calculated those numbers.

You can read my whole article, dated 12 June 2010, at
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/rec.bicycles.tech/THE$20CASE$20FOR$20A$20MANDATORY$20CYCLE$20HELMET$ 20LAW$20(IN$20THE$20UNITED$20STATES$20OF$20AMERICA )$20by$20Andre$20Jute%7Csort:date/rec.bicycles.tech/ow2rIVqZ_DU/pdrY0lrdze8J

If you want to discuss the numbers, or the conclusions from them, rather than fling thirdhand sneers from Samuel Langhorne Clemens, I'd be delighted.

Andre Jute
Good statistics are like a Bach cantata, incomparably more than the sum of their numbers -- Andre Jute, Chairman's valedictory address, MASA
  #7  
Old May 14th 19, 02:14 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Duane[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 401
Default HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING? DEPENDS ON WHICH NUMBERS YOU EMPHASISE.

On 13/05/2019 6:27 p.m., Sir Ridesalot wrote:
On Monday, May 13, 2019 at 5:33:52 PM UTC-4, Andre Jute wrote:
On Monday, May 13, 2019 at 5:31:26 PM UTC+1, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 3:59:57 AM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
Here's my analysis of US national bicycle safety, published in 2010.* Nothing significant has changed since then.

***
HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING?
Surprisingly, cycling can be argued to be "safe enough", given only
that one is willing to count the intangible benefits of health through
exercise, generally acknowledged as substantial. Here I shall make no
effort to quantify those health benefits because the argument I'm
putting forward is conclusively made by harder statistics and
unexceptional general morality.

In the representative year of 2008, the last for which comprehesive
data is available, 716 cyclists died on US roads, and 52,000 were
injured.

Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

The most convenient way to grasp the meaning of these statistics is to
compare cycling with motoring, the latter ipso facto by motorists'
average mileage accepted by most Americans as safe enough.

Compared to a motorist a cyclist is:
11 times MORE likely to die PER MILE travelled
2.9 times MORE likely to die PER TRIP taken

By adding information about the relative frequency/length/duration of
journeys of cyclists and motorists, we can further conclude that in
the US:

Compared to a motorist, a cyclist is:
3 to 4 times MORE likely to die PER HOUR riding
3 to 4 times LESS likely to die IN A YEAR's riding

Source:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=D&q=htt...Wt7vubH xju7Q

It is the last number, that the average cyclist is 3 to 4 times less
likely to die in a year's riding than a motorist, and enjoys all the
benefits of healthy exercise, that permits us to ignore the greater
per mile/per trip/per hour danger.

***

Andre Jute
* A complete version is at
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!ms...ch/qOFCNhQ1428 . I used the best national figures available then, referring to 2008, but just about nothing has changed since then.

My experience shows nothing of the kind.


You can't argue with the official national numbers, Tom.

Though I DO have motorists acting in a threatening manner quite often after some 40 years of cycling I have been hit by ONE car. And that at a very low rate of speed so that I was more sore from contact from the ground than damage by the car.


In the random nature of statistical calculation, if there is one chance in a million of your being hit, and you're hit today, that does mean you can't be hit tomorrow as well

I watched Andrew's video on "taking the lane" and you can SEE that in these cases these drivers were breaking the law in every case and in all but one I don't think that any actions taken by the rider would have prevented it other than by being more observant and FAR more willing to modify their speed to allow these obviously stupid drivers to go regardless of right-of-way.


These numbers that I'm offering don't differentiate the causes of the incidents leading to the fatalities.

I think that the "dangerous" bicycle statistics come entirely from people that do not know how to ride correctly, ride on the wrong side of the road against traffic, ride on sidewalks veering out into traffic in an unpredictable manner and the like. This is somewhat similar to cars being made to look far less safe than they are because of the dangerous driving habits of a very few.


Sure, but again, these are the national official figures I'm working with, and they're a compilation of actual deaths on the road, not a sample, not anyone's opinion of the danger, but the hard facts of dead cyclists, 700 and some dead cyclists.

I made the original post because Frank Krygowski understated how safe cycling is, even as he screeched that other people were shouting "Danger! Danger!", as he still does in the forlorn hope of shutting up conversation.

Andre Jute
Numerate


With regards to statistics. I think British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli said it best: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The problem with statistics seems to be that one can pick and choose which ones to use to support their position.

Cheers


Like touting that the accident rate went up drastically (whatever
drastically means) but not mentioning that cycling participation
(whatever participation means) went up 75%?

Assuming the statistics were well formed, it would be interesting to
compare the rate of increased cycling to the rate of increased
accidents. Most white papers that I've read regarding participation
indicate increased participation reduces percentage of accidents.


  #8  
Old May 14th 19, 04:58 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Andre Jute[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,422
Default HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING? DEPENDS ON WHICH NUMBERS YOU EMPHASISE.

On Tuesday, May 14, 2019 at 2:14:18 PM UTC+1, duane wrote:
On 13/05/2019 6:27 p.m., Sir Ridesalot wrote:
On Monday, May 13, 2019 at 5:33:52 PM UTC-4, Andre Jute wrote:
On Monday, May 13, 2019 at 5:31:26 PM UTC+1, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Sunday, May 12, 2019 at 3:59:57 AM UTC-7, Andre Jute wrote:
Here's my analysis of US national bicycle safety, published in 2010.* Nothing significant has changed since then.

***
HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING?
Surprisingly, cycling can be argued to be "safe enough", given only
that one is willing to count the intangible benefits of health through
exercise, generally acknowledged as substantial. Here I shall make no
effort to quantify those health benefits because the argument I'm
putting forward is conclusively made by harder statistics and
unexceptional general morality.

In the representative year of 2008, the last for which comprehesive
data is available, 716 cyclists died on US roads, and 52,000 were
injured.

Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

The most convenient way to grasp the meaning of these statistics is to
compare cycling with motoring, the latter ipso facto by motorists'
average mileage accepted by most Americans as safe enough.

Compared to a motorist a cyclist is:
11 times MORE likely to die PER MILE travelled
2.9 times MORE likely to die PER TRIP taken

By adding information about the relative frequency/length/duration of
journeys of cyclists and motorists, we can further conclude that in
the US:

Compared to a motorist, a cyclist is:
3 to 4 times MORE likely to die PER HOUR riding
3 to 4 times LESS likely to die IN A YEAR's riding

Source:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=D&q=htt...Wt7vubH xju7Q

It is the last number, that the average cyclist is 3 to 4 times less
likely to die in a year's riding than a motorist, and enjoys all the
benefits of healthy exercise, that permits us to ignore the greater
per mile/per trip/per hour danger.

***

Andre Jute
* A complete version is at
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!ms...ch/qOFCNhQ1428 . I used the best national figures available then, referring to 2008, but just about nothing has changed since then.

My experience shows nothing of the kind.

You can't argue with the official national numbers, Tom.

Though I DO have motorists acting in a threatening manner quite often after some 40 years of cycling I have been hit by ONE car. And that at a very low rate of speed so that I was more sore from contact from the ground than damage by the car.

In the random nature of statistical calculation, if there is one chance in a million of your being hit, and you're hit today, that does mean you can't be hit tomorrow as well

I watched Andrew's video on "taking the lane" and you can SEE that in these cases these drivers were breaking the law in every case and in all but one I don't think that any actions taken by the rider would have prevented it other than by being more observant and FAR more willing to modify their speed to allow these obviously stupid drivers to go regardless of right-of-way.

These numbers that I'm offering don't differentiate the causes of the incidents leading to the fatalities.

I think that the "dangerous" bicycle statistics come entirely from people that do not know how to ride correctly, ride on the wrong side of the road against traffic, ride on sidewalks veering out into traffic in an unpredictable manner and the like. This is somewhat similar to cars being made to look far less safe than they are because of the dangerous driving habits of a very few.

Sure, but again, these are the national official figures I'm working with, and they're a compilation of actual deaths on the road, not a sample, not anyone's opinion of the danger, but the hard facts of dead cyclists, 700 and some dead cyclists.

I made the original post because Frank Krygowski understated how safe cycling is, even as he screeched that other people were shouting "Danger! Danger!", as he still does in the forlorn hope of shutting up conversation.

Andre Jute
Numerate


With regards to statistics. I think British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli said it best: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

The problem with statistics seems to be that one can pick and choose which ones to use to support their position.

Cheers


Like touting that the accident rate went up drastically (whatever
drastically means) but not mentioning that cycling participation
(whatever participation means) went up 75%?


That's politics, not statistics, and a pretty low class of politics at that.. A more sophisticated trick, much practised by the Climate Alarm Mob, is choosing a reference period to favour your "preferred narrative" rather than the objective general truth the numbers point to when compared to longterm cycles. Even more sophisticated is using log-log graph paper to either highlight or de-emphasize a huge change, and simply outright crookery is taking the graph and the scale away to leave only the misleading trend lines.

That sort of film-flam is easily seen through, and easily fixed by demanding that all results be normalised to an agreed reference, like the easily understood "fatalities per 100 million kilometres" that James uses, and insisting on seeing the raw numbers rather than the graph.

In any event, if "participation" increased 75% from some non-negligible base, I would expect the accident rate expressed on some agreed reference to fall because of your next point:

Assuming the statistics were well formed, it would be interesting to
compare the rate of increased cycling to the rate of increased
accidents. Most white papers that I've read regarding participation
indicate increased participation reduces percentage of accidents.


James's numbers claim that one in seven Australians cycle over two hours a week, but that the fatalities remain stable, whereas less serious incidents have increased. He thinks it possible that the increased cycling is by people "without ninja skills" taking up bicycle commuting. Another possible explanation is that drivers see more cyclists and therefore have perceived a need to come to terms with them, hence the average incident seriousness has been lowered. Maybe there's the small beginnings of a cycling culture (which has attitudinal advantages among even non-cyclists, as in The Netherlands) in Australia. I won't be betting my own money on it just yet, but one in 7 Australians cycling is, if true, at the very least a pointer to an amazing future for the Big Country.

Andre Jute
Potential
  #9  
Old May 14th 19, 05:06 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Frank Krygowski[_4_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,538
Default HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING? DEPENDS ON WHICH NUMBERS YOU EMPHASISE.

On 5/14/2019 9:14 AM, Duane wrote:
On 13/05/2019 6:27 p.m., Sir Ridesalot wrote:


The problem with statistics seems to be that one can pick and choose
which ones to use to support their position.


Like touting that the accident rate went up drastically (whatever
drastically means) but not mentioning that cycling participation
(whatever participation means) went up 75%?

Assuming the statistics were well formed, it would be interesting to
compare the rate of increased cycling to the rate of increased
accidents.Â* Most white papers that I've read regarding participation
indicate increased participation reduces percentage of accidents.


It would be _really_ interesting if Duane would read just a little bit
about what's being discussed.

The "cycling participation ... went up by 75%" seems to refer to the
Moorehead report on the mile of "protected" bike lane in Columbus, Ohio.
On page 8 of that report, Moorehead brags in bold type that "Level of
Bicycling" had a "~75% increase."

But on page 12, he doesn't spotlight the change in crash counts nearly
as boldly. In fact, he never lists it as a percent change. Instead, he
notes that in 2011 to 2014 there were a total of six crashes.

After the "protection" was installed, in less than two years (2016 to
September 2017) there were 24 crashes.

So apparently, this facility increased the average annual crash count
from 1.5 to over 12.

Duane, do you want to calculate the percent increase in crashes? Or
shall I do the simple math for you?

Hint: The percent increase in crashes is WAY bigger than the increase in
riding. The riders are at FAR more danger now.

The paper _should_ be available at

http://www.dot.state.oh.us/engineeri...oorhead_72.pdf


That URL works for me every time I use it on every machine. It's worked
for other people who have discussed the report online. I apologize if it
somehow isn't working for some others. I see no reason it should be
restricted by geography.

- Frank Krygowski
  #10  
Old May 13th 19, 11:34 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
James[_8_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 6,153
Default HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING? DEPENDS ON WHICH NUMBERS YOU EMPHASISE.

On 12/5/19 8:59 pm, Andre Jute wrote:
Here's my analysis of US national bicycle safety, published in 2010.* Nothing significant has changed since then.

***
HOW DANGEROUS IS CYCLING?
Surprisingly, cycling can be argued to be "safe enough", given only
that one is willing to count the intangible benefits of health through
exercise, generally acknowledged as substantial. Here I shall make no
effort to quantify those health benefits because the argument I'm
putting forward is conclusively made by harder statistics and
unexceptional general morality.

In the representative year of 2008, the last for which comprehesive
data is available, 716 cyclists died on US roads, and 52,000 were
injured.

Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

The most convenient way to grasp the meaning of these statistics is to
compare cycling with motoring, the latter ipso facto by motorists'
average mileage accepted by most Americans as safe enough.

Compared to a motorist a cyclist is:
11 times MORE likely to die PER MILE travelled
2.9 times MORE likely to die PER TRIP taken

By adding information about the relative frequency/length/duration of
journeys of cyclists and motorists, we can further conclude that in
the US:

Compared to a motorist, a cyclist is:
3 to 4 times MORE likely to die PER HOUR riding
3 to 4 times LESS likely to die IN A YEAR's riding

Source:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=D&q=htt...Wt7vubH xju7Q

It is the last number, that the average cyclist is 3 to 4 times less
likely to die in a year's riding than a motorist, and enjoys all the
benefits of healthy exercise, that permits us to ignore the greater
per mile/per trip/per hour danger.

***

Andre Jute
* A complete version is at
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!ms...ch/qOFCNhQ1428 . I used the best national figures available then, referring to 2008, but just about nothing has changed since then.


In Australia the number of cyclists killed per year has been relatively
stable for at least a decade, and is close to 40.
https://www.bitre.gov.au/statistics/safety/fatal_road_crash_database.aspx

The national cycling participation survey that is conducted every 2
years since 2011 (2011, 2013, 2015, 2017) shows a statistically
significant decline in participation.
https://www.cycle-helmets.com/ncp-2017.pdf

In 2017, 3.74 million Australians cycled in a typical week, for 2.54
hours each on average.

Excluding the people who cycle less frequently, that is 9.5 million
hours of cycling per week, or a bit shy of 500 million hours annually.
Ok so I've rounded up to include some of those who cycle less frequently.

If those cyclists average 20 km/h, then 10 billion km, or 0.4 deaths per
100 million km.

According to BITRE data, Australia's road toll in 2016 was 0.52 per 100
million vehicle km. That includes motorcyclists as well as car
occupants and everyone else (perhaps even pedestrians).

Cycling doesn't appear particularly dangerous given this.

There is one interesting extra piece of information though, and that is
that cycling serious injuries (requiring a hospital stay of a couple of
weeks at least), have increased nearly 100% over the past 10 years,
where as fatalities have remained relatively constant.

My guess is that there are more low speed crashes occurring in urban
areas. People are trying to use a bicycle for transport to combat car
traffic congestion, and are not skilled ninja cyclists.

--
JS
 




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