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Fun with exponents



 
 
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  #1  
Old May 22nd 20, 04:28 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
AMuzi
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Posts: 13,447
Default Fun with exponents

In today's news:

https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/

Which could happen, But it won't.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.
--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

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  #2  
Old May 22nd 20, 07:12 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
[email protected]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 884
Default Fun with exponents

On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 8:28:14 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
In today's news:

https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/

Which could happen, But it won't.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.
--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971


I think that this will occur anywhere where the distance to work isn't that far. I have at least three big time jobs in San Leandro here and now that I live here I would ride a bike there rather than drive. Usually my office or cubical was large enough to store a bike while I was working.
  #3  
Old May 22nd 20, 07:25 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Jeff Liebermann
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Posts: 4,018
Default Fun with exponents

On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

In today's news:
https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/
Which could happen, But it won't.


I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order
polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and
trends. Yep, exponents are fun.

I suspect we could do better determining if bicycles will triumph over
automobiles by tossing a coin. Some random considerations:

1. Car pools are probably going to be very unpopular due to the
difficulty maintaining 2 meter distancing. After Covid-19, it will
probably be one person per car, no passengers, no buses, no trains, no
van pools, etc. Taxis and Uber might survive if a partition were
installed between the driver and passenger, but sanitizing the
passenger area will be difficult.

2. Bicycles are currently functional because of the lack of
automobile traffic. If the traffic returns when the lock down ends,
bicycles will again be considered a risky proposition become less
attractive for commuting. This might be balanced by a dramatic
reduction in the number of workers that need to commute. Difficult to
tell a this point. If the US state of Georgia is any indication, most
of the jobs lost are not going to return immediately making commuting
more of a long term problem than an immediate crisis.

3. An increase in bicycle usage requires better end point facilities
and infrastructure, such as storage lockers, traffic management,
dedicated lanes, signage, etc. I don't see that happening as all the
aforementioned are controversial.

4. The world has gotten a taste of working at home. At least the
"knowledge workers" have had the experience. From what little I've
seen, working via Teamviewr, AnyDesk, GoToMyPC, etc remote desktop
applications and meeting via Zoom, Webex, Skype, BlueJeans, etc will
probably reduce the need to commute.

5. Lots of other factors might sway bicycle commuting in either
direction. From my warped perspective, the key is the unemployment
levels and the loaded overhead cost of having employees. Unemployment
rates have been seriously distorted by various government for
political reasons. Loaded overhead per employee is going to skyrocket
because of the added costs of providing a safe workplace and the
inevitable rise in medical and insurance expenses. The temptation
will be to outsource as much as possible and transfer the problem and
expense elsewhere.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.


"Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
See the bottom of the page for how the mortality rate is calculated.
Feel free to adjust the assumptions, guesses, and standards based upon
your level of optimism, political views, creative arithmetic, and
level of trust in the sources involved.


--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D
http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
  #4  
Old May 22nd 20, 11:01 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
[email protected]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 884
Default Fun with exponents

On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 11:25:30 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

In today's news:
https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/
Which could happen, But it won't.


I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order
polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and
trends. Yep, exponents are fun.

I suspect we could do better determining if bicycles will triumph over
automobiles by tossing a coin. Some random considerations:

1. Car pools are probably going to be very unpopular due to the
difficulty maintaining 2 meter distancing. After Covid-19, it will
probably be one person per car, no passengers, no buses, no trains, no
van pools, etc. Taxis and Uber might survive if a partition were
installed between the driver and passenger, but sanitizing the
passenger area will be difficult.

2. Bicycles are currently functional because of the lack of
automobile traffic. If the traffic returns when the lock down ends,
bicycles will again be considered a risky proposition become less
attractive for commuting. This might be balanced by a dramatic
reduction in the number of workers that need to commute. Difficult to
tell a this point. If the US state of Georgia is any indication, most
of the jobs lost are not going to return immediately making commuting
more of a long term problem than an immediate crisis.

3. An increase in bicycle usage requires better end point facilities
and infrastructure, such as storage lockers, traffic management,
dedicated lanes, signage, etc. I don't see that happening as all the
aforementioned are controversial.

4. The world has gotten a taste of working at home. At least the
"knowledge workers" have had the experience. From what little I've
seen, working via Teamviewr, AnyDesk, GoToMyPC, etc remote desktop
applications and meeting via Zoom, Webex, Skype, BlueJeans, etc will
probably reduce the need to commute.

5. Lots of other factors might sway bicycle commuting in either
direction. From my warped perspective, the key is the unemployment
levels and the loaded overhead cost of having employees. Unemployment
rates have been seriously distorted by various government for
political reasons. Loaded overhead per employee is going to skyrocket
because of the added costs of providing a safe workplace and the
inevitable rise in medical and insurance expenses. The temptation
will be to outsource as much as possible and transfer the problem and
expense elsewhere.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.


"Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
See the bottom of the page for how the mortality rate is calculated.
Feel free to adjust the assumptions, guesses, and standards based upon
your level of optimism, political views, creative arithmetic, and
level of trust in the sources involved.


--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D
http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558


If you have the idea that people are going to stop shaking hands, hugging and kissing, you being far more effected by the propaganda that anyone would think
  #5  
Old May 22nd 20, 11:44 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Andre Jute[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,422
Default Fun with exponents

On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 4:28:14 PM UTC+1, AMuzi wrote:
In today's news:

https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/

Which could happen, But it won't.


Right. Statisticians in theory deny the impossibility of any imaginable future event, which is just common sense, but in real life some theoretically possible events have such a low probability that for practical purposes they are the same as impossible.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.


I would assign this possibility a much higher likelihood than the end of the car in favour of bicycles, or even the beginning of the end of the car. We don't know yet what the effect of the lockdown will be on the second wave, so a quarter million fatalities in total could be a possible prognostication, at least worth considering among other hypothesis. Offhand, I think the likelihood of 250,000 deaths from the virus in the US is receding, but it would be reckless to dismiss it out of hand as I do the cycling hypothesis..

Perhaps the dream of the universal bicyclist can be deepened in societies which are already by choice (as opposed to poverty) bicycle-centric, like the Dutch, or as a nation used to being guilt-ridden, like the Germans, but in almost every other affluent society where the car has already taken hold, it is too big an ask. In the US or Australia, forgeddabout it.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971


Andre Jute
I vote with Jeff, always the safe option
  #6  
Old May 22nd 20, 11:49 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
Andre Jute[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,422
Default Fun with exponents

On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 7:25:30 PM UTC+1, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order
polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and
trends. Yep, exponents are fun.


When the numbers are really, really against what I have already decided we should do, I reach for the log-log paper.

[common sense snipped as being misplaced]

--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D
http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558


Andre Jute
"Reality is what I say it is," said the rabbit before popping back into the top hat.
  #7  
Old May 23rd 20, 03:04 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
jOHN b.
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2,421
Default Fun with exponents

On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

In today's news:

https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/

Which could happen, But it won't.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.


Well, by tomorrow you'll probably be at the 100,000+ mark :-(
--
cheers,

John B.

  #8  
Old May 23rd 20, 04:09 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
AMuzi
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 13,447
Default Fun with exponents

On 5/22/2020 9:04 PM, John B. wrote:
On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

In today's news:

https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/

Which could happen, But it won't.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.


Well, by tomorrow you'll probably be at the 100,000+ mark :-(



Peruse Dr Farr's work and get back to us on that.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971


  #9  
Old May 23rd 20, 06:14 AM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
jOHN b.
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2,421
Default Fun with exponents

On Fri, 22 May 2020 22:09:06 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/22/2020 9:04 PM, John B. wrote:
On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

In today's news:

https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/

Which could happen, But it won't.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.


Well, by tomorrow you'll probably be at the 100,000+ mark :-(



Peruse Dr Farr's work and get back to us on that.


I just keep score and as of May 22, 2020, 22:18 GMT y'all were at
97,562, and the "new cases" on that date was +22,407 so unless the new
case rate drops a remarkable amount tomorrow y'all will have over
100,000 deaths, since 29 February.

At the rate you are going you could easily hit 250,000 by next week.
(250,000-97562=152438/22,407=6.8)

--
cheers,

John B.

  #10  
Old May 23rd 20, 02:27 PM posted to rec.bicycles.tech
AMuzi
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 13,447
Default Fun with exponents

On 5/23/2020 12:14 AM, John B. wrote:
On Fri, 22 May 2020 22:09:06 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 5/22/2020 9:04 PM, John B. wrote:
On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

In today's news:

https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/

Which could happen, But it won't.

Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US
Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though
that may be.

Well, by tomorrow you'll probably be at the 100,000+ mark :-(



Peruse Dr Farr's work and get back to us on that.


I just keep score and as of May 22, 2020, 22:18 GMT y'all were at
97,562, and the "new cases" on that date was +22,407 so unless the new
case rate drops a remarkable amount tomorrow y'all will have over
100,000 deaths, since 29 February.

At the rate you are going you could easily hit 250,000 by next week.
(250,000-97562=152438/22,407=6.8)



Trees grow but trees do not grow to heaven.

--
Andrew Muzi
www.yellowjersey.org/
Open every day since 1 April, 1971


 




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