#1
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Fun with exponents
In today's news:
https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/ Which could happen, But it won't. Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though that may be. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
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#2
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Fun with exponents
On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 8:28:14 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
In today's news: https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/ Which could happen, But it won't. Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though that may be. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 I think that this will occur anywhere where the distance to work isn't that far. I have at least three big time jobs in San Leandro here and now that I live here I would ride a bike there rather than drive. Usually my office or cubical was large enough to store a bike while I was working. |
#3
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Fun with exponents
On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
In today's news: https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/ Which could happen, But it won't. I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and trends. Yep, exponents are fun. I suspect we could do better determining if bicycles will triumph over automobiles by tossing a coin. Some random considerations: 1. Car pools are probably going to be very unpopular due to the difficulty maintaining 2 meter distancing. After Covid-19, it will probably be one person per car, no passengers, no buses, no trains, no van pools, etc. Taxis and Uber might survive if a partition were installed between the driver and passenger, but sanitizing the passenger area will be difficult. 2. Bicycles are currently functional because of the lack of automobile traffic. If the traffic returns when the lock down ends, bicycles will again be considered a risky proposition become less attractive for commuting. This might be balanced by a dramatic reduction in the number of workers that need to commute. Difficult to tell a this point. If the US state of Georgia is any indication, most of the jobs lost are not going to return immediately making commuting more of a long term problem than an immediate crisis. 3. An increase in bicycle usage requires better end point facilities and infrastructure, such as storage lockers, traffic management, dedicated lanes, signage, etc. I don't see that happening as all the aforementioned are controversial. 4. The world has gotten a taste of working at home. At least the "knowledge workers" have had the experience. From what little I've seen, working via Teamviewr, AnyDesk, GoToMyPC, etc remote desktop applications and meeting via Zoom, Webex, Skype, BlueJeans, etc will probably reduce the need to commute. 5. Lots of other factors might sway bicycle commuting in either direction. From my warped perspective, the key is the unemployment levels and the loaded overhead cost of having employees. Unemployment rates have been seriously distorted by various government for political reasons. Loaded overhead per employee is going to skyrocket because of the added costs of providing a safe workplace and the inevitable rise in medical and insurance expenses. The temptation will be to outsource as much as possible and transfer the problem and expense elsewhere. Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though that may be. "Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate" https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ See the bottom of the page for how the mortality rate is calculated. Feel free to adjust the assumptions, guesses, and standards based upon your level of optimism, political views, creative arithmetic, and level of trust in the sources involved. -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 |
#4
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Fun with exponents
On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 11:25:30 AM UTC-7, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote: In today's news: https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/ Which could happen, But it won't. I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and trends. Yep, exponents are fun. I suspect we could do better determining if bicycles will triumph over automobiles by tossing a coin. Some random considerations: 1. Car pools are probably going to be very unpopular due to the difficulty maintaining 2 meter distancing. After Covid-19, it will probably be one person per car, no passengers, no buses, no trains, no van pools, etc. Taxis and Uber might survive if a partition were installed between the driver and passenger, but sanitizing the passenger area will be difficult. 2. Bicycles are currently functional because of the lack of automobile traffic. If the traffic returns when the lock down ends, bicycles will again be considered a risky proposition become less attractive for commuting. This might be balanced by a dramatic reduction in the number of workers that need to commute. Difficult to tell a this point. If the US state of Georgia is any indication, most of the jobs lost are not going to return immediately making commuting more of a long term problem than an immediate crisis. 3. An increase in bicycle usage requires better end point facilities and infrastructure, such as storage lockers, traffic management, dedicated lanes, signage, etc. I don't see that happening as all the aforementioned are controversial. 4. The world has gotten a taste of working at home. At least the "knowledge workers" have had the experience. From what little I've seen, working via Teamviewr, AnyDesk, GoToMyPC, etc remote desktop applications and meeting via Zoom, Webex, Skype, BlueJeans, etc will probably reduce the need to commute. 5. Lots of other factors might sway bicycle commuting in either direction. From my warped perspective, the key is the unemployment levels and the loaded overhead cost of having employees. Unemployment rates have been seriously distorted by various government for political reasons. Loaded overhead per employee is going to skyrocket because of the added costs of providing a safe workplace and the inevitable rise in medical and insurance expenses. The temptation will be to outsource as much as possible and transfer the problem and expense elsewhere. Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though that may be. "Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate" https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ See the bottom of the page for how the mortality rate is calculated. Feel free to adjust the assumptions, guesses, and standards based upon your level of optimism, political views, creative arithmetic, and level of trust in the sources involved. -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 If you have the idea that people are going to stop shaking hands, hugging and kissing, you being far more effected by the propaganda that anyone would think |
#5
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Fun with exponents
On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 4:28:14 PM UTC+1, AMuzi wrote:
In today's news: https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/ Which could happen, But it won't. Right. Statisticians in theory deny the impossibility of any imaginable future event, which is just common sense, but in real life some theoretically possible events have such a low probability that for practical purposes they are the same as impossible. Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though that may be. I would assign this possibility a much higher likelihood than the end of the car in favour of bicycles, or even the beginning of the end of the car. We don't know yet what the effect of the lockdown will be on the second wave, so a quarter million fatalities in total could be a possible prognostication, at least worth considering among other hypothesis. Offhand, I think the likelihood of 250,000 deaths from the virus in the US is receding, but it would be reckless to dismiss it out of hand as I do the cycling hypothesis.. Perhaps the dream of the universal bicyclist can be deepened in societies which are already by choice (as opposed to poverty) bicycle-centric, like the Dutch, or as a nation used to being guilt-ridden, like the Germans, but in almost every other affluent society where the car has already taken hold, it is too big an ask. In the US or Australia, forgeddabout it. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 Andre Jute I vote with Jeff, always the safe option |
#6
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Fun with exponents
On Friday, May 22, 2020 at 7:25:30 PM UTC+1, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
I'm a leading exponent of number juggling. Exponents and high order polynomial trend lines are very useful for distorting information and trends. Yep, exponents are fun. When the numbers are really, really against what I have already decided we should do, I reach for the log-log paper. [common sense snipped as being misplaced] -- Jeff Liebermann 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558 Andre Jute "Reality is what I say it is," said the rabbit before popping back into the top hat. |
#7
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Fun with exponents
On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
In today's news: https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/ Which could happen, But it won't. Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though that may be. Well, by tomorrow you'll probably be at the 100,000+ mark :-( -- cheers, John B. |
#8
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Fun with exponents
On 5/22/2020 9:04 PM, John B. wrote:
On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote: In today's news: https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/ Which could happen, But it won't. Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though that may be. Well, by tomorrow you'll probably be at the 100,000+ mark :-( Peruse Dr Farr's work and get back to us on that. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
#9
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Fun with exponents
On Fri, 22 May 2020 22:09:06 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/22/2020 9:04 PM, John B. wrote: On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote: In today's news: https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/ Which could happen, But it won't. Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though that may be. Well, by tomorrow you'll probably be at the 100,000+ mark :-( Peruse Dr Farr's work and get back to us on that. I just keep score and as of May 22, 2020, 22:18 GMT y'all were at 97,562, and the "new cases" on that date was +22,407 so unless the new case rate drops a remarkable amount tomorrow y'all will have over 100,000 deaths, since 29 February. At the rate you are going you could easily hit 250,000 by next week. (250,000-97562=152438/22,407=6.8) -- cheers, John B. |
#10
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Fun with exponents
On 5/23/2020 12:14 AM, John B. wrote:
On Fri, 22 May 2020 22:09:06 -0500, AMuzi wrote: On 5/22/2020 9:04 PM, John B. wrote: On Fri, 22 May 2020 10:28:02 -0500, AMuzi wrote: In today's news: https://cyclingindustry.news/third-o...ds-cycling-uk/ Which could happen, But it won't. Similarly, Wharton yesterday projected a quarter million US Wuhan Virus deaths. Which also could happen, unlikely though that may be. Well, by tomorrow you'll probably be at the 100,000+ mark :-( Peruse Dr Farr's work and get back to us on that. I just keep score and as of May 22, 2020, 22:18 GMT y'all were at 97,562, and the "new cases" on that date was +22,407 so unless the new case rate drops a remarkable amount tomorrow y'all will have over 100,000 deaths, since 29 February. At the rate you are going you could easily hit 250,000 by next week. (250,000-97562=152438/22,407=6.8) Trees grow but trees do not grow to heaven. -- Andrew Muzi www.yellowjersey.org/ Open every day since 1 April, 1971 |
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