Wheels and tires

On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 6:52:26 PM UTC-7, jbeattie wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 6:15:18 PM UTC-7, news18 wrote:
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 19:02:16 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 3/26/2020 3:28 PM, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 02:03:30 -0000 (UTC), news18
wrote:

This was in the recent online offerings;
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...t-too-much-to-
ask-
for-an-actual-plan/

I say that you are a very nasty journalist who wants Donald Trump to
fail in the next election!

Expect the President and his Cabinet to do their jobs and save the
lives of Americans? What are you, a socialist? Save the money first,
it can't take care of itself unlike people.


I see no humor in the many working people with whom I associate who are
desperate. April rent is due...

Unfortunately there are always peole who will willingy live life on the
knife edge. Personally, lack of prior proper plannng on their part does
not constitrute an emergency on my part.

We've just been told of a related couple who will no tw have to move back
home in a desperate gamble to save money to continue to pay off the
negatively geared mortgages on all their rented properties because his
pay has been slashed 75% and there is a good chance of having now-
unemployed tennants default. I probably am not popular as I warned them
of this about a yer ago as a generally unwise way to do things.

Tenant defaults are a huge problem with multi-family, and one that me and my brothers are facing right now on several leveraged properties. We'll probably get $1M or so in financing to keep the properties afloat until rents stabilize. This is a Black Swan event for a lot of businesses -- and not because of poor planning. Every business is leveraged -- a retail business with no income will burn through even robust savings if it has to pay months of rent on unproductive space, and there is no rent holiday for commercial tenants.

The response to COVID-19 has caused wages to plummet and may cause at least some service businesses to disappear. Maybe that's needed to protect the population and maybe not. Regardless of whether it is the right choice, one cannot deny the serious consequences of shutting down the economy and the effect on ordinary wage-earners and well-run small businesses. I think the public health should prevail, but that doesn't mean we just ignore the economy, particularly since there are health consequences of being poor.

-- Jay Beattie.

Restaurants make up the largest single segment of the businesses in the USA at 19%. And they ALL normally operate at or very near the edge of profitability. This WILL kill a whole lot of them. Others could reopen but won't because they are tired of being abused by the government. This isn't good for the economy.

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 9:34:10 AM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 3/27/2020 10:43 AM, AMuzi wrote:

One wonders how a society decides to ignore 12,500 dead:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

And then commit national suicide 11 years later under not-worse
circumstances. That decision has been made but I wonder what spurred
this attitude change?

The attitude changed because of the rate of change of infection cases.
The current rate of change indicates a likely overwhelming of our
emergency medical system, as has happened in Italy and is happening in
NYC. That was not true in 2009.

The extrapolation of current data isn't difficult. But it is scary.

--
- Frank Krygowski

The chief medical officer in New York City warned the Mayor 20 years ago that the hospital system could be overwhelmed by just this sort of thing and the succeeding mayors did nothing.

AMuzi writes:

On 3/26/2020 9:44 PM, John B. wrote:
tOn Thu, 26 Mar 2020 20:10:31 -0500, AMuzi
wrote:

On 3/26/2020 7:40 PM, John B. wrote:
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 20:09:24 +0000 (UTC), Ralph Barone
wrote:

Radey Shouman wrote:
Ralph Barone writes:

John B. wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 19:26:32 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 3/25/2020 12:43 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:

[snip on-topic bicycle stuff]

On Tuesday, March 24, 2020 at 3:18:09 PM UTC-7, Joerg wrote:

I can't figure out what Newsome thinks he's doing saying that a couple
of weeks from now isn't long enough to keep businesses shut down. Its
been two weeks already and in another couple of weeks all of the
restaurants, the largest business sector, will be dead.


If your auntie was Nancy Pelosi, you could try your hand at
being Governor too!

Given that the virus "new case" rate in the U.S. is now the highest in
the world (as of March 26, 2020, 00:12 GMT) the question of whether
the restaurants go out of business because of a shutdown or whether
they go out of business because their customers catch the virus is
probably immaterial.
--
cheers,

John B.

It’s a tough call. Either way people are going to be
uncomfortable or die,
but my guesses are with the shutdown being the better choice. Considering
that pandemics are just compound interest with a very high interest rate
and a very short compounding period (take out a loan at 250% interest per
week and tell me how that works out for you), I’m surprised at
the lack of
serious response from the guy running things south of 49.

Interesting analogy. Going a bit further, it seems immunity and
bankruptcy are two sides of the same coin, while death works the same
for both compounded debts and pandemic illness. Looks like we elected
an experience-qualified guy after all.


I guess, except his “go-to� move is declaring bankruptcy and letting the
other people deal with the mess.

So, if you’re paying 250% a week interest on a loan, when is a good time to
start selling stuff on Craigslist for a two week repayment program? The
correct answer is As Soon As You Borrowed The Money. The second best answer
is Right ****ing Now!

Perhaps an even better solution is "don't borrow money at 250% a
week". That would be, 1100% over one year :-)
--
cheers,

John B.


Mr Slocumb-
You have many skills but this isn't one of them.
Taking a $100 loan at 250% per week for 52 weeks on a
regular amortization table sums to:

$1 397 688 109 531 440 000 000 000 000 000.00

Compound interest is a powerful thing, underestimated by
borrowers in every era, in every place.

Which demonstrates that, at least for me, my policy of never borrowing
money is the correct one :-)

But are you sure? I just calculated it and I get
$49,303,806,576,313,200,000,000.00 :-)

--
cheers,

John B.


Simple or compounded weekly?

For compounded weekly I get:

$1,956,991,596,955,520,295,245,474,499,646

after 52 weeks. This value is not exact, I rounded to the nearest
dollar every week.

This is of the same order of magnitude as Mr. Muzi's figure, but not up
to accounting standards.

I suspect that Mr. Slocomb computed 100 * 2.50^52, for
which I get:

$49,303,806,576,313,241,698,304

This is also not exact, as I used floating point arithmetic. It's
pretty close to the same as his figure, however.

The base of 2.50 is not right, though, as that would imply a mere 150%
interest rate.

The correct calculation of 100 * 3.50^52 gives:

$1,956,763,353,344,008,803,942,544,703,488

again using floating point. Again, in the ballpark of Mr. Muzi's.

--

On 3/27/2020 3:24 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/27/2020 11:34 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 3/27/2020 10:43 AM, AMuzi wrote:

One wonders how a society decides to ignore 12,500 dead:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html


And then commit national suicide 11 years later under
not-worse circumstances. That decision has been made but I
wonder what spurred this attitude change?

The attitude changed because of the rate of change of
infection cases. The current rate of change indicates a
likely overwhelming of our emergency medical system, as has
happened in Italy and is happening in NYC. That was not true
in 2009.

The extrapolation of current data isn't difficult. But it is
scary.


It is indeed difficult.
Trees grow, but trees do not grow to heaven (Charles Ponzi
notwithstanding).

This is not an ideal parabola of infinite height. It's a normal curve of
unknown height, unknown shape and unknown duration.Â* We do not know
where we are on that unknown path either. But it surely is not an
infinite progression.

I don't know of anyone who claimed "infinite height." But every
professional projection I've seen says that the case load will greatly
exceed hospital capacity. Ohio's (Republican) governor and his
apparently competent Director of Health are projecting that even with
the current measures (schools and non-essential businesses closed,
social distancing, even some local curfews, etc.) the peak will be
triple the current hospital capacity.

In Ohio, 16% of confirmed cases are health care workers. That phenomenon
effectively reduces health care resources.

Those things did not happen with H1N1. This is not the same, no matter
what any stable genius says.

--
- Frank Krygowski

On 3/27/2020 3:55 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 6:21:05 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 3/26/2020 7:48 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 4:12:48 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 3/26/2020 6:43 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 1:28:56 PM UTC-7, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 02:03:30 -0000 (UTC), news18
wrote:

This was in the recent online offerings;
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...o-much-to-ask-
for-an-actual-plan/

I say that you are a very nasty journalist who wants Donald Trump to
fail in the next election!

Expect the President and his Cabinet to do their jobs and save the lives
of Americans? What are you, a socialist? Save the money first, it
can't take care of itself unlike people.

Tell us all what the President is going to do against a disease. This ought to be interesting to listen to a moron run on about just how ignorant about the world around him he is.

Many public health professionals can tell you what the president
_should_ have done against a disease. It's hardly a secret.


--
- Frank Krygowski

It isn't a secret but you don't know what it is?

Wrong.


--
- Frank Krygowski

And again, you have no answers. You grow tiresome trying to convince anything that somehow the government is a knight in shining armor that can stand in between you and an illness. Trump got private industry involved and we now have testing methods that went from 2 weeks to 45 minutes and that doesn't in the least my you or your wonderful "medical" friends happy. They have found three different methods that all seem to work well when properly applied but most doctors do not wish to use because it is without FDA approval for that use and they open themselves up for massive lawsuit.

There is already at least one vaccine but it will take the FDA between a year and a year and a half to approve it for human use. At least one of those vaccines is made by a method that is known to produce reliable and safe vaccination.

That isn't enough for you though is it Frank?

What's not enough, once again, is your proclaiming your profound wisdom
only on a bicycle discussion group. There are medical doctors,
infectious disease specialists, medical response teams, hospital staff
and countless ordinary physicians across the country with advanced
degrees and decades of experience who somehow disagree with most of what
you post!

Get out there, man! Set the CDC straight! Inform the WHO! And if the
U.S. won't listen to you, at least save some other countries!

Tom, with great wisdom comes great responsibility. Your responsibility
is to set the rest of the world straight, using your own unique
knowledge. Don't shirk your responsibility! Get out there!

I'll bet you haven't even made your sign-on-a-stick yet, you slacker.


--
- Frank Krygowski

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 10:14:38 AM UTC-7, Ralph Barone wrote:
Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 3/27/2020 10:43 AM, AMuzi wrote:

One wonders how a society decides to ignore 12,500 dead:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

And then commit national suicide 11 years later under not-worse
circumstances. That decision has been made but I wonder what spurred
this attitude change?

The attitude changed because of the rate of change of infection cases.
The current rate of change indicates a likely overwhelming of our
emergency medical system, as has happened in Italy and is happening in
NYC. That was not true in 2009.

The extrapolation of current data isn't difficult. But it is scary.


There are two types of people right now. Those that are scared and those
who don’t understand math.

I have to wonder which one you are? Of the 9134 deaths in Italy only about 600 of them were attributed to Covid-19 and not pre-existing health conditions. This means that even under one of the most deplorable health systems in Europe only 0.7% died primarily from this disease. This despite death panels.

What is this math you think you know that supposedly should strike fear into the hearts of men everywhere?

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 1:19:47 PM UTC-7, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 3/27/2020 3:24 PM, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/27/2020 11:34 AM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
On 3/27/2020 10:43 AM, AMuzi wrote:

One wonders how a society decides to ignore 12,500 dead:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html


And then commit national suicide 11 years later under
not-worse circumstances. That decision has been made but I
wonder what spurred this attitude change?

The attitude changed because of the rate of change of
infection cases. The current rate of change indicates a
likely overwhelming of our emergency medical system, as has
happened in Italy and is happening in NYC. That was not true
in 2009.

The extrapolation of current data isn't difficult. But it is
scary.


It is indeed difficult.
Trees grow, but trees do not grow to heaven (Charles Ponzi
notwithstanding).

This is not an ideal parabola of infinite height. It's a normal curve of
unknown height, unknown shape and unknown duration.Â* We do not know
where we are on that unknown path either. But it surely is not an
infinite progression.

I don't know of anyone who claimed "infinite height." But every
professional projection I've seen says that the case load will greatly
exceed hospital capacity. Ohio's (Republican) governor and his
apparently competent Director of Health are projecting that even with
the current measures (schools and non-essential businesses closed,
social distancing, even some local curfews, etc.) the peak will be
triple the current hospital capacity.

In Ohio, 16% of confirmed cases are health care workers. That phenomenon
effectively reduces health care resources.

Those things did not happen with H1N1. This is not the same, no matter
what any stable genius says.

--
- Frank Krygowski

The Great Fank-ini is predicting future pandemonium as he did about the horrors of climate change.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...tail&FORM=VIRE

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 12:58:57 -0700, Tom Kunich wrote:


Restaurants make up the largest single segment of the businesses in the
USA at 19%. And they ALL normally operate at or very near the edge of
profitability. This WILL kill a whole lot of them. Others could reopen
but won't because they are tired of being abused by the government. This
isn't good for the economy.

So it will be good for "restaurnts" going forward, as the pollies say,
because many of them will not survive to reopen.

Ill wind; our green grocer reports sales are booming as people are
suddenly having to cook at home again.

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 14:51:18 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 3/27/2020 2:45 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 4:54:28 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/26/2020 3:16 PM, Tim McNamara wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 20:45:42 -0500, AMuzi wrote:
On 3/25/2020 7:40 PM, John B. wrote:

Given that the virus "new case" rate in the U.S. is now the highest
in the world (as of March 26, 2020, 00:12 GMT) the question of
whether the restaurants go out of business because of a shutdown or
whether they go out of business because their customers catch the
virus is probably immaterial.


Sure of that?

We're a large nation so having a large number may not be a large rate
(as compared with, say, 60 million Italians).

Updated hourly:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

You can look at cumulative confirmed cases globally and by nation, some
data broken down to the county level, as well as by daily increase. The
US's current daily increase is very steep- about 20% daily in the past
few days and accelerating as expected. Thus far we are not "flattening
the curve" significantly since many of those people were infected before
the advent of social distancing, etc. If the measures are successful,
they will start to show up visibly in the trend curves in another 1-2
weeks. By then we'll be at about 200,000 infected Americans at the
current rate. Hopefully the rate of infection slows soon!

Had Trump been more on the ball and willing to listen to people who are
actually competent, there might have been a more effective response
sooner. But like so many Republicans, he values money more than lives.

The good news for Americans thus far is that the case fatality rate in
the US seems to be about 1/3 that of the world at large. That may
change as folks get into what seems to tend to be the worst parts of the
illness (days 7-10). And mst hospitals are not yet overwhelmed in the
US, except I would imagine in New York and the northeastern seaboard
they are seeing that.


Tim, since you have some geriatric practice experience IIRC,
you might find the Wall Street Journal of 24 March with a
very detailed article on the Kirkland WA snafu - a regular
tragedy of errors.


I designed microtitration devices for testing things like this corona virus test and turning on the TV I see them doing this by hand. So not only are they doing this all in slow motion but they are endangering the people that are handling these samples for test.

We have people screaming about the rapid increase in "infections" despite the majority of these are nothing more than a rapid increase in confirmation of infections via the new testing.

At what point do you suppose it is going to get through to them that when you only test people that are showing symptoms of any sort you are going to miss the 4 out of 5 that do not have symptoms or very mild such as me and perhaps Jay? Then when you increase testing suddenly you are going to find that another 4 times the confirmed rates are infected. These people will not stress the hospital systems and despite New York's governor and the City's Mayor you're not going to need 15 times the number of ventilators you now have.

My symptoms are obviously abating so why should I get tested? Do you suppose this would be some sort of badge of courage?

I did 23 miles yesterday and returned before there was a thunderstorm. Short but a lot of rain. Today I did 25 and despite wearing warm clothing was just at the edge of being cold despite riding fairly hard for half the distance into a 30 mph+ headwind. Since there was no break the return trip with the tailwind wasn't much easier. Strava says 13.3 mph despite 21 lights and perhaps the same number of stop signs and everything was against me today. But I don't think I'll have any problems sleeping tonight.

I am beginning to get the hang of the Di2 shifting since I was wearing heavy gloves and could barely feel the levers and had little problems shifting.


Better analysis will come with larger test populations:

https://www.icelandreview.com/societ...et-widespread/

Don't expect that sort of test rate in large countries any
time soon.

:-) Iceland has a population of some 364,260 and a population
density of 8.8/sq. mile. Los Angeles has a population of 3,990,456 and
a population density of 8,092/sq mile :-)
--
cheers,

John B.

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 14:18:03 -0500, AMuzi wrote:

On 3/26/2020 9:45 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
Ralph Barone writes:

AMuzi wrote:
On 3/26/2020 11:20 AM, Sepp Ruf wrote:
AMuzi wrote:
On 3/25/2020 7:40 PM, John B. wrote:

Given that the virus "new case" rate in the U.S. is now the highest in
the world (as of March 26, 2020, 00:12 GMT) the question of whether
the restaurants go out of business because of a shutdown or whether
they go out of business because their customers catch the virus is
probably immaterial.

With about 60 million Italians, of whom about 7,000 deaths
are attributed to the Chinese Bioweapon virus, an equivalent
proportion of USAians would be just under 40,000 dead. As
of today it's roughly 1,000. A thousand dead people is a
real problem (to them, anyway) but it's not of the scale
Italy has suffered.

(I avoid repeating any of the lying lies spewed by the
Chinese propaganda machine. Make a guess yourself.)

Try F@løøn 6Øng's theepochtimes.com for China news.

Hear, hear, in Chicago lawyer geography, "outside is not for 5Ks"...
https://www.theepochtimes.com/chicago-officials-threaten-arrests-over-runs-bike-rides-basketball-amid-covid-19-pandemic_3286675.html
Chicago mayor Lori Lightfoot heavy-handedly threatens commuters with death
by prison infection: "Outside is for a brief respite, not for 5Ks. I can’t
emphasize enough that we abide [by] the rules."

Crook County reasoning, probably: When trails are fully closed, it's the
outlaws who will be safest from full trails...
https://chicago.suntimes.com/coronavirus/2020/3/26/21195127/latest-coronavirus-news-for-march-26-2020-live-updates


Agreed, Epoch Times is a wonderful resource. If not for them
we would know nothing of China.
https://www.ejinsight.com/eji/articl...er-hk-autonomy

Meanwhile here's a vote of confidence on the near futu

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...virus-spreads/

http://www.rfi.fr/en/americas/202003...ears-and-chaos

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/p...being-rationed



I wonder how fast Mexico and Canada can build border walls :-(

Mexicans are protesting in Nogales about untested yanquis crossing the
border:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52053656


China just closed its borders.

see
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...091505922.html
The date stated to be "7 hours ago"
--
cheers,

John B.